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只要房价还在上涨,投资者就不会退出市场

2019-03-16     牛牛财经   来源:金融投资报
文章摘要:■易观楼市■易宪容周五有一篇文章,题为《告别43个月“牛市”:前两月商品房销售面积降3.6%》。看看这个标题,如果不明就里的民众,一定会被这文章吓破胆。但实际上,这篇文章什么也没有说。因为,第一,如果住房市场是一个以投资者为主导的市场,房地产市场是….

■易yiguanloushi

■易yixianrong

zhouwuyouyipianwenzhang,题tiwei《告gaobie43个geyue“牛niushi”:前qianliangyueshangpinfangxiaoshoumianjijiang3.6%》。看kankanzhegebiaoti,如ruguobumingjiulideminzhong,一yidinghuibeizhewenzhangxiapodan。但danshijishang,这zhepianwenzhangshimeyemeiyoushuo

yinwei,第diyi,如ruguozhufangshichangshiyigeyitouzizheweizhudaodeshichang,房fangdichanshichangshiyigetouzishichang,那namezhegeshichangdejuedingyinsu,并bingbushizhufangdexiaoshouliang,而ershizhufangdeshichangjiagebianhua。比biru,2016年nianbeijing(楼loupan)、深shenzhen(楼loupan)等dengchengshichutaifangdichandiaokongzhengcezhihou,当dangniandezhufangxiaoshouliangxiadie50%以yishang,但danyouyufangjiameiyouxiadie,所suoyizhexiechengshidefangdichanshichangrengranjiantingdaoxianzai。还huanyouzhufangxiaoshoumianjishiyigeshifenhanhudegainian,它takeyishibutongjiage,不butongdeleixingdezhufang。如ruguofangjiadingdaotianshangqu,那naxiegaodangzhuzhaidexiaoshouxiajiangyeshizhengchang

dier,这zhepianwenzhangdeqiantijibenshangkendingdangqianzhufangshichangshiyigeyitouzizheweizhudaodeshichang。因yinweizhiyoutouzishichangcaiyou“牛niushi”及ji“熊xiongshi”之zhifen。牛niushishi,整zhenggeshichangyuqifangjiazaishangzhang,所suoyitouzizhehuibuduandiyongrushichang,从conger使shidefangjiayueduiyuegao,进jinrudetouzizheyuelaiyueduo。熊xiongshishi,投touzizheduifangjiashangzhangdeyuqinizhuan,所suoyizhufangtouzizhezheshidulikaishichang,这zheshibujinzhufangdejiageyuelaiyuexiangxiadiaozheng,而erqiezhufangxiaoshouliangyekenengjijuxiajiang。如ruguozhufangjiagebuxiadie、投touzizhefangjiashangzhangyuqibugaibian,“牛niushi”是shibuhuijieshude。所suoyi,这zhegewenzhangdeqiantijibucunzaishichangluojixing,也yeyuzhongyangyaoqiudezhufangshichangde“只zhizhubuchao”原yuanzexiangbei

yinwei,就jiuguojiatongjijugongbude2月yuefen70个gedazhongchengshidezhufangshichangjiagelaikan,4个geyi线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagehuanbishangzhang0.3%;二ershouzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagehuanbishangzhang0.1%。31个geer线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagehuanbishangzhang0.7%;二ershouzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagehuanbixiajiang0.2%。35个gesan线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagehuanbishangzhang0.4%;二ershouzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagehuanbishangzhang0.2%。2月yuefen,一yi线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagetongbishangzhang4.1%,涨zhangfubishangyuekuoda0.8个gebaifendian;二ershouzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagetongbishangzhang0.3%。二er线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaiheershouzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagetongbifenbieshangzhang12.0%和he8.2%。三san线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaiheershouzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagetongbifenbieshangzhang11.1%和he8.3%。

zhexieshujushuomingliaodangqianzhongguodezhuzhaishichangdeqingkuang,即jiguoneizhuzhaishichang,无wulunshixinfangshichang,还huanshiershoufangshichang,无wulunshihuanbihuanshitongbi,国guoneizhufangdejiagejibenshangduchuyushangzhangdetaishizhong,特tebieshier线xiansan线xianchengshixinjianshangpinzhuzhaiheershouzhuzhaixiaoshoujiagetongbifenbieshangzhang12.0%和he8.2%、11.1%和he8.3%,更gengshishuomingfangjiashangzhangdepubianxing。如ruguozhan90%以yishangdechengshifangjiatongbiduzaiyi10%以yishangfuduzaishangzhang,那nameguoneizhufangshichangdefangjiashangzhangyuqigenbenjiumeiyougaibian。如ruguoanzhaozhepianwenzhangsuojiadingfangdichanshichangshiyigeyitouzizheweizhudaodeshichang,那nameguonei90%以yishangdechengshifangjiadushangzhang,房fangdichanshichangjiageshangzhangyuqigenbenmeiyounizhuan,反fanzhihuanzaijixu,那namezhegezhufangshichangde“牛niushi”当dangqianshibukenengjieshude。房fangjiahuanzaizheyangdeyigefudushangzhang,住zhufangtouzizheduifangjiashangzhangyuqimeiyounizhuan,国guoneifangdichanshichang“牛niushi”岂qihuijieshune?就jiuru2018年nianguoneizuidafangdichangongsilaozongshuodangshifangdichanshichangwentiyouduoyanzhong,但dandaoniandigaigongsiyejizengchang15%,都dushichulaixuzhangshengshi

jiudangqianzhongguofangdichanshichangqingkuanglaikan,根genju西xinancaida2018年niandiaochajieguo,目muqiangoumaizhufangdejuminjibenshangdushitouzizhe,改gaishanxingzhufangjitouzixingzhufanggoumaizhedebizhongzhan86%。也yejiushishuo,当dangqianguoneifangdichanshichang,基jibenshangshitouzizheweizhudaodeshichang,这zhegexingzhishijinianmeiyouduoshaogaibian。既jiranguoneifangdichanshichangshiyitouzizheweizhudaodeshichang,判panduanguoneizhufangshichangzuiweijibendefangshijiushikanfangjiabianhua,就jiudekanzhufangtouzizheduifangjiashangzhangdeyuqibianhua。如ruguoguoneifangdichanshichangjiagezongtizaishangzhang,而erqieshangzhangfudududadaoshuangweishushuiping,那namezaizhezhongqingkuangxia,想xiangrangtouzizhelikaifangdichanjihubukeneng,他tamenzongshihuipochugezhongxianzhijinrushichang

gengweizhongyaodeshi,当dangqianzhezhongtongjichulaidefangjia,可kenengyuxianshishichangdefangjiahuanhuixiangchahenyuan。2018年nianwodaoguoneibushaosan线xianchengshi,那naxiechengshidefangjiajibenshangshifanbeishangzhang,但danshizaifangjiatongjibiaoshangzebushizheyang。从cong2016年niankaishi,尤youqishizheliangnian,国guoneigechengshidefangjiashangzhanghuoxiadie,都duzailingdianjidequjian,根genbenshangjiumeiyoukandaonagechengshifangjiahuidafushangzhang,更gengshimeiyouxiadiede。这zheqishiyikanjiushiyixiedifangzhengfurenweidejieguo。因yinwei,政zhengfudefangdichandiaokongmubiaoshijibunengrangfangjiashangzhangguokuai,也yebunenggourangfangjiakuaisuxiadie。房fangdichanshichangyaowenfangjia、稳wenyuqi。试shixiangzaizheyangdefangdichandiaokongmubiaoxia,中zhongguodefangdichanshichangqinenghuishangzhangjixiadiene?但danshijishangzhongguodefangdichanshichangzaobushishichangliao,市shichangjingjitielvjishichangjingjifazezaizhongguofangdichanshichangzaojiushixiaoliao。也yejiushishuo,如ruguozhengfutuozhuliaofangjia,住zhufangtouzizheqineng退tuichushichang?房fangdichanshichang“牛niushi”岂qinengjieshu

(易yixianrong,原yuanzhongguoshekeyuanjinrongfazhanshizhuren

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